{"id":23243,"date":"2026-09-14T13:08:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T13:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/?post_type=blog&#038;p=23243"},"modified":"2026-09-14T13:31:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T13:31:39","slug":"warsaws-primary-residential-market-in-q2-2026-what-do-the-latest-nbp-data-show","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/blog\/warsaws-primary-residential-market-in-q2-2026-what-do-the-latest-nbp-data-show\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsaw\u2019s primary residential market in Q2 2026: what do the latest NBP data show?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Warsaw\u2019s primary residential market in Q2 2026: what do the latest NBP data show?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Warsaw\u2019s primary residential market entered Q2 2026 with noticeably stronger activity. More apartments were available for sale, the number of transactions increased, and both asking and transaction prices moved higher again.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, differences between individual districts and apartment segments are becoming increasingly visible. The market for units of up to 40 m\u00b2 behaves differently from the 40\u201360 m\u00b2 family-apartment segment, while the largest apartments follow yet another pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest report by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) on Warsaw and the Warsaw metropolitan area provides a detailed picture of these changes. The analysis is based on data from the NBP BaRN database and includes, among other things, listings available as of 1 June 2026 and transactions concluded between 1 March and 31 May 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Warsaw\u2019s primary market \u2013 7 key figures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>more than 13,500 apartments available for sale<\/strong> \u2013 14.2% more than in the previous quarter,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>more than 3,200 apartments sold<\/strong> \u2013 up 7.8% quarter-on-quarter and as much as 44.3% year-on-year,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PLN 18,488\/m\u00b2<\/strong> \u2013 average asking price for a new apartment,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PLN 16,783\/m\u00b2<\/strong> \u2013 average transaction price,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>325 residential developments under construction<\/strong> \u2013 a record number reported by NBP,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka and Targ\u00f3wek<\/strong> together accounted for 25.1% of supply and 24.5% of transactions,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>apartments of 40\u201360 m\u00b2<\/strong> remained the largest market segment, while demand for units below 40 m\u00b2 was relatively stronger than the available supply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A larger supply did not stop sales from growing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most important developments in Q2 was the simultaneous increase in both supply and transaction volume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More than <strong>13,500 apartments<\/strong> were available on Warsaw\u2019s primary market. This was 14.2% more than in the previous quarter and 5.8% more than a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sales increased at the same time. More than <strong>3,200 new apartments<\/strong> were purchased during the analysed period, 7.8% more than in Q1 2026. The year-on-year change was particularly pronounced, with the number of transactions rising by <strong>44.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market therefore became more competitive on the supply side, but the wider choice available to buyers did not lead to weaker demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New apartment prices continue to rise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stronger buyer activity was accompanied by further price growth. In Q2 2026, both asking prices and transaction prices were higher than three months earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key price figures:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>PLN 18,488\/m\u00b2<\/strong> \u2013 average asking price (+2.4% q\/q | +6.9% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PLN 16,783\/m\u00b2<\/strong> \u2013 average transaction price (+1.9% q\/q | +2.4% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PLN 17,518\/m\u00b2<\/strong> \u2013 median asking price<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PLN 15,964\/m\u00b2<\/strong> \u2013 median transaction price<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>10.2%<\/strong> \u2013 difference between the average asking price and the average transaction price<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most noticeable difference can be seen in the annual growth rates. Asking prices increased much faster than transaction prices \u2013 by <strong>6.9% and 2.4% year-on-year<\/strong>, respectively. This indicates that sellers\u2019 price expectations were rising faster than the prices buyers were ultimately willing to accept.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A record number of residential developments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">High activity was also visible on the development side. In Q2 2026, <strong>325 new residential projects<\/strong> were under construction in Warsaw \u2013 a record figure according to NBP. The largest number of developments was located in <strong>Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka and Mokot\u00f3w<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The structure of available supply was as follows:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>41.1% of apartments on the market<\/strong> were scheduled for completion in 2027, making this the largest group in the available supply,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>21.5% of supply<\/strong> consisted of apartments scheduled for completion in 2028; their share increased significantly compared with the previous quarter,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>buyers most often selected apartments with earlier completion dates \u2013 units due for completion in <strong>2026 accounted for 34.2% of transactions<\/strong>, while those scheduled for <strong>2027 accounted for 37.8%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This shows that although the supply is increasingly shifting towards projects scheduled for completion in 2027 and 2028, buyers still tend to favour apartments with shorter waiting times before handover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka and Targ\u00f3wek lead Warsaw apartment sales<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsaw\u2019s primary market is highly diversified in terms of location. <strong>Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka and Targ\u00f3wek<\/strong> stood out in particular in terms of both supply and sales volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Together, they accounted for <strong>25.1% of all apartments available for sale<\/strong> and <strong>24.5% of all recorded transactions<\/strong> \u2013 the highest share in the analysed quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">W\u0142ochy and Ursus also had a significant share of sales, at 19.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In both groups of districts, average transaction prices remained below the Warsaw-wide average. In Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka and Targ\u00f3wek, the average was <strong>PLN 13,877\/m\u00b2<\/strong>, while in W\u0142ochy and Ursus it reached <strong>PLN 15,223\/m\u00b2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Location remains one of the key factors shaping prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsaw\u2019s primary market is highly diverse, which means that the citywide average does not fully reflect actual price levels across individual districts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Excluding \u015ar\u00f3dmie\u015bcie and \u017boliborz, NBP recorded the highest average asking price in the combined Ochota and Wola group, at <strong>PLN 26,270\/m\u00b2<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In selected districts, prices were as follows:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Wola<\/strong> \u2013 asking price: <strong>PLN 25,381\/m\u00b2<\/strong>, transaction price: <strong>PLN 24,513\/m\u00b2<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mokot\u00f3w<\/strong> \u2013 asking price: <strong>PLN 22,080\/m\u00b2<\/strong>, transaction price: <strong>PLN 19,324\/m\u00b2<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Targ\u00f3wek<\/strong> \u2013 asking price: <strong>PLN 15,627\/m\u00b2<\/strong>, transaction price: <strong>PLN 15,069\/m\u00b2<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka<\/strong> \u2013 asking price: <strong>PLN 13,794\/m\u00b2<\/strong>, transaction price: <strong>PLN 13,165\/m\u00b2<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The difference between the average asking price in Wola and Bia\u0142o\u0142\u0119ka exceeded <strong>PLN 11,000\/m\u00b2<\/strong>. This clearly shows how strongly location continues to influence the price of a new apartment in Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apartments of 40\u201360 m\u00b2 continue to dominate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apartments with a floor area of <strong>40\u201360 m\u00b2<\/strong> make up the largest part of Warsaw\u2019s primary market, but NBP data also show that the smallest units are selected relatively more often by buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key differences between segments are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Apartments below 40 m\u00b2<\/strong> accounted for 24.1% of supply, but as much as 28.9% of transactions, indicating relatively stronger buyer interest. They also commanded high prices \u2013 an average of PLN 19,675\/m\u00b2 in listings and PLN 17,413\/m\u00b2 in transactions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Apartments of 40\u201360 m\u00b2<\/strong> represented 44.8% of total supply and 40.6% of transactions, making them the largest group of units available on the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Apartments above 80 m\u00b2<\/strong> were among the most expensive on a per-square-metre basis, with an average asking price of PLN 20,525\/m\u00b2 and an average transaction price of PLN 17,880\/m\u00b2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The picture is therefore clear: <strong>apartments of 40\u201360 m\u00b2 dominate in terms of available supply, while the smallest units show a stronger sales-to-supply relationship and continue to command high prices per square metre.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">More construction starts and more apartments completed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Q2 2026, construction began on more than <strong>3,600 apartments<\/strong> in Warsaw \u2013 23.3% more than in the previous quarter and 28.2% more than a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>building permits were obtained for <strong>more than 3,200 apartments<\/strong>, an increase of 17.9% quarter-on-quarter,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>approximately <strong>4,200 units were completed and delivered for use<\/strong>, up as much as 62.1% from the previous quarter and 3.9% year-on-year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The data therefore point to a clear increase in activity on the new-supply side of the market, not only in sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What do the latest data tell us about the Warsaw market?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsaw\u2019s primary residential market has clearly gained momentum, but at the same time it has become more demanding. Sales and prices are rising, yet the expansion of supply gives buyers a wider choice, while the pace of sales remains an important challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The key conclusions from the NBP data are:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Demand has returned to a higher level<\/strong> \u2013 the number of transactions was 44.3% higher than a year earlier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Supply increased significantly<\/strong> \u2013 it grew by 14.2% quarter-on-quarter, giving buyers a wider range of options.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Prices continued to rise<\/strong>, but asking prices increased faster than transaction prices \u2013 by 6.9% and 2.4% year-on-year, respectively.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Competition in the market is increasing<\/strong> \u2013 Warsaw had a record 325 projects under construction, while the average sales period extended to 14.5 months.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The smallest apartments attract relatively stronger buyer interest<\/strong> \u2013 units below 40 m\u00b2 account for 24.1% of supply but 28.9% of sales. Apartments of 40\u201360 m\u00b2 remain the largest segment in the available offer, although their share of sales is lower.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The overall picture is therefore quite clear: <strong>the market has regained momentum, but it has not returned to conditions in which apartments sell easily regardless of the offer<\/strong>. Buyers are more active than a year ago, but they also have more options to compare. For developers, this makes price positioning, location and product-market fit increasingly important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":22038,"template":"","blog_categories":[],"class_list":["post-23243","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog\/23243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/blog"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"blog_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.activ-investment.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog_categories?post=23243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}