Warsaw’s primary residential market in Q2 2026: what do the latest NBP data show?

Warsaw’s primary residential market entered Q2 2026 with noticeably stronger activity. More apartments were available for sale, the number of transactions increased, and both asking and transaction prices moved higher again.

At the same time, differences between individual districts and apartment segments are becoming increasingly visible. The market for units of up to 40 m² behaves differently from the 40–60 m² family-apartment segment, while the largest apartments follow yet another pattern.

The latest report by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) on Warsaw and the Warsaw metropolitan area provides a detailed picture of these changes. The analysis is based on data from the NBP BaRN database and includes, among other things, listings available as of 1 June 2026 and transactions concluded between 1 March and 31 May 2026.

Warsaw’s primary market – 7 key figures

  • more than 13,500 apartments available for sale – 14.2% more than in the previous quarter,
  • more than 3,200 apartments sold – up 7.8% quarter-on-quarter and as much as 44.3% year-on-year,
  • PLN 18,488/m² – average asking price for a new apartment,
  • PLN 16,783/m² – average transaction price,
  • 325 residential developments under construction – a record number reported by NBP,
  • Białołęka and Targówek together accounted for 25.1% of supply and 24.5% of transactions,
  • apartments of 40–60 m² remained the largest market segment, while demand for units below 40 m² was relatively stronger than the available supply.

A larger supply did not stop sales from growing

One of the most important developments in Q2 was the simultaneous increase in both supply and transaction volume.

More than 13,500 apartments were available on Warsaw’s primary market. This was 14.2% more than in the previous quarter and 5.8% more than a year earlier.

Sales increased at the same time. More than 3,200 new apartments were purchased during the analysed period, 7.8% more than in Q1 2026. The year-on-year change was particularly pronounced, with the number of transactions rising by 44.3%.

The market therefore became more competitive on the supply side, but the wider choice available to buyers did not lead to weaker demand.

New apartment prices continue to rise

Stronger buyer activity was accompanied by further price growth. In Q2 2026, both asking prices and transaction prices were higher than three months earlier.

Key price figures:

  • PLN 18,488/m² – average asking price (+2.4% q/q | +6.9% y/y)
  • PLN 16,783/m² – average transaction price (+1.9% q/q | +2.4% y/y)
  • PLN 17,518/m² – median asking price
  • PLN 15,964/m² – median transaction price
  • 10.2% – difference between the average asking price and the average transaction price

The most noticeable difference can be seen in the annual growth rates. Asking prices increased much faster than transaction prices – by 6.9% and 2.4% year-on-year, respectively. This indicates that sellers’ price expectations were rising faster than the prices buyers were ultimately willing to accept.

A record number of residential developments

High activity was also visible on the development side. In Q2 2026, 325 new residential projects were under construction in Warsaw – a record figure according to NBP. The largest number of developments was located in Białołęka and Mokotów.

The structure of available supply was as follows:

  • 41.1% of apartments on the market were scheduled for completion in 2027, making this the largest group in the available supply,
  • 21.5% of supply consisted of apartments scheduled for completion in 2028; their share increased significantly compared with the previous quarter,
  • buyers most often selected apartments with earlier completion dates – units due for completion in 2026 accounted for 34.2% of transactions, while those scheduled for 2027 accounted for 37.8%.

This shows that although the supply is increasingly shifting towards projects scheduled for completion in 2027 and 2028, buyers still tend to favour apartments with shorter waiting times before handover.

Białołęka and Targówek lead Warsaw apartment sales

Warsaw’s primary market is highly diversified in terms of location. Białołęka and Targówek stood out in particular in terms of both supply and sales volumes.

Together, they accounted for 25.1% of all apartments available for sale and 24.5% of all recorded transactions – the highest share in the analysed quarter.

Włochy and Ursus also had a significant share of sales, at 19.7%.

In both groups of districts, average transaction prices remained below the Warsaw-wide average. In Białołęka and Targówek, the average was PLN 13,877/m², while in Włochy and Ursus it reached PLN 15,223/m².

Location remains one of the key factors shaping prices

Warsaw’s primary market is highly diverse, which means that the citywide average does not fully reflect actual price levels across individual districts.

Excluding Śródmieście and Żoliborz, NBP recorded the highest average asking price in the combined Ochota and Wola group, at PLN 26,270/m².

In selected districts, prices were as follows:

  • Wola – asking price: PLN 25,381/m², transaction price: PLN 24,513/m²,
  • Mokotów – asking price: PLN 22,080/m², transaction price: PLN 19,324/m²,
  • Targówek – asking price: PLN 15,627/m², transaction price: PLN 15,069/m²,
  • Białołęka – asking price: PLN 13,794/m², transaction price: PLN 13,165/m².

The difference between the average asking price in Wola and Białołęka exceeded PLN 11,000/m². This clearly shows how strongly location continues to influence the price of a new apartment in Warsaw.

Apartments of 40–60 m² continue to dominate

Apartments with a floor area of 40–60 m² make up the largest part of Warsaw’s primary market, but NBP data also show that the smallest units are selected relatively more often by buyers.

The key differences between segments are as follows:

  • Apartments below 40 m² accounted for 24.1% of supply, but as much as 28.9% of transactions, indicating relatively stronger buyer interest. They also commanded high prices – an average of PLN 19,675/m² in listings and PLN 17,413/m² in transactions.
  • Apartments of 40–60 m² represented 44.8% of total supply and 40.6% of transactions, making them the largest group of units available on the market.
  • Apartments above 80 m² were among the most expensive on a per-square-metre basis, with an average asking price of PLN 20,525/m² and an average transaction price of PLN 17,880/m².

The picture is therefore clear: apartments of 40–60 m² dominate in terms of available supply, while the smallest units show a stronger sales-to-supply relationship and continue to command high prices per square metre.

More construction starts and more apartments completed

In Q2 2026, construction began on more than 3,600 apartments in Warsaw – 23.3% more than in the previous quarter and 28.2% more than a year earlier.

  • building permits were obtained for more than 3,200 apartments, an increase of 17.9% quarter-on-quarter,
  • approximately 4,200 units were completed and delivered for use, up as much as 62.1% from the previous quarter and 3.9% year-on-year.

The data therefore point to a clear increase in activity on the new-supply side of the market, not only in sales.

What do the latest data tell us about the Warsaw market?

Warsaw’s primary residential market has clearly gained momentum, but at the same time it has become more demanding. Sales and prices are rising, yet the expansion of supply gives buyers a wider choice, while the pace of sales remains an important challenge.

The key conclusions from the NBP data are:

  • Demand has returned to a higher level – the number of transactions was 44.3% higher than a year earlier.
  • Supply increased significantly – it grew by 14.2% quarter-on-quarter, giving buyers a wider range of options.
  • Prices continued to rise, but asking prices increased faster than transaction prices – by 6.9% and 2.4% year-on-year, respectively.
  • Competition in the market is increasing – Warsaw had a record 325 projects under construction, while the average sales period extended to 14.5 months.
  • The smallest apartments attract relatively stronger buyer interest – units below 40 m² account for 24.1% of supply but 28.9% of sales. Apartments of 40–60 m² remain the largest segment in the available offer, although their share of sales is lower.

The overall picture is therefore quite clear: the market has regained momentum, but it has not returned to conditions in which apartments sell easily regardless of the offer. Buyers are more active than a year ago, but they also have more options to compare. For developers, this makes price positioning, location and product-market fit increasingly important.